Avoiding a mid-east nuclear war
Posted by
mgroothand on January 01, 2007 - 12:53 PM
The continued sabre rattling in the Mid-East is becoming extremely dangerous. Iran's promise to "wipe Israel off the map" is ominous to say the least. Ahmadinejad's nosethumbing at the UN Security Council and defying their mandates is beyond description. Many leaders of that world and the western world are talking about nuclear weapons. Pakistan, a neighbor of Iran and a Muslim nation, has nukes. Israel, a mortal enemy of Iran has nukes. Who will fire the first nuke and who will fire the last one? It could be a rhetorical question, it doesn't have to be a nuclear question at all, although war there is inevitable.
Sometime in the early 1980's, Ronald Reagan prevailed upon the Saudis to make a concession.
He persuaded the Saudis to cut oil prices to clobber Soviet revenues from its Siberian fields. The Saudis -- by gaining market share at the Soviet Union's expense -- made more money at the lower prices than they had been making at the higher.
Money talks in Saudi Arabia and this precedent is well and fondly remembered. Besides, the Saudis want nothing to do with a nuclear Iran.
Iran's economy is almost in shambles and is wholly dependent on oil and gas. Should the West be able to again persuade the Saudis to cut oil prices drastically,(they can afford it)the Iran economy would collapse and the Saudis would gain.
Iran's south western province of Khuzestan produces over 90% of their oil. Incapacitating those oil fields with a very short, conventional bombing run by the Israelis from Al Basrah in Iraq would have Ahmadinejad and his Mullahs on their knees.
The combination of collapsed oil prices and the inabilty to pump oil will ruin Iran economically.
No oil, no money, no nukes and millions of lives spared.
I'm no military analyst nor am I an economist, but I can read a map and I do have some common sense.
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