Tiger-less PGA up for grabs

Nobody is jumping out.

Phil Mickelson's inconsistency isn't encouraging. Vijay Singh's putting was even horrid in victory last week. Ernie Els still seems a little bit off his confidence. Without No. 1 Elrick Woods in the field, there doesn't seem to be a favorite to win the PGA Championship.

How about a first-timer? Sergio Garcia was a more obvious choice at the British Open. Adam Scott still has never really contended in a major. But there are any number of potential first-time winners this week at Oakland Hills.

Kenny Perry is a posibility. He's playing as well as anybody this season even though he has yet to tee it up in a major this year. With news Wednesday that Perry scratched his eye taking out his contact lens the day before the tournament, he would certainly fit the profile of the wounded golfers who keep winning the big ones this year.

Since nobody stood out, I was considering basing my prediction on some personal quirky history. I have had a knack of engaging in some kind of off-course encounter with players who end up pulling off victories in the near aftermath.

Michael Campbell sat in the booth behind me at Outback Steakhouse in Pinehurst on Saturday night in 2005 and ended up winning the U.S. Open the next day. Zach Johnson shared the coach airline cabin with me shortly before winning the 2007 Masters.

So based on that logic, maybe somebody would step across my path and walk away with the Wannamaker Trophy by week's end.

Garcia was in the concierge lounge of the Marriott when I checked in Monday and talking to girls in the hotel bar Wednesday when I was ordering dinner. That's a good sign.

But the encounters haven't stopped. Scott Verplank ran into me in the lobby on Tuesday morning. Paul Casey was getting on the elevator when I got off. K.J. Choi shared the same elevator a few minutes later. Colin Montgomerie, Trevor Immelman and Daniel Chopra all wandered through the restaurant where we ate Wednesday.

Clearly there are still too many candidates to choose from. So I'm going to have to wing it. I've had a season-long hunch about Lee Westwood, and his performance last week in the WGC event did  nothing to diminish that. I like his chances here where he celebrated a Ryder Cup victory four years ago.

Sadly for Westwood, he seems to be the only contender not staying in my hotel. So I'll have to go with Paul Casey as my bet. Why? Because he's major caliber and he desperately needs the points to make the European Ryder Cup team.

Oh yeah, he's also sleeping in the hotel room adjacent to mine. I can't think of a better reason to pick a favorite with Tiger nowhere to be found.