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Is U.S. headed for an economic disaster?

Posted by Damon Cline on January 06, 2008 - 7:33 PM

“Right now, the rest of the world owns $3 trillion more of us than we own of them.”
– Warren Buffett, Jan. 17, 2006

Chances are, you enjoy a better standard of living than your parents, certainly much better than your grandparents or great-grandparents. As an American, it is normal to expect that your children and grandchildren will have a higher standard of living than what you enjoy today.


What if the opposite were to happen?


I’m not trying to scare you (Lord knows there’s plenty of people already out there doing that), I just want you to consider something for a moment: What would life in the United States be like if it were to lose its standing as the world’s economic superpower?


If you’re Peter Schiff, there’s no “if,” only “when.”


The Wall Street commentator’s new book, Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse, lays out a doomsday scenario for the U.S. economy: Foreign nations, whose investments in the U.S. have allowed it to postpone dealing with its massive debt and trade deficits, decide they no longer want the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency, choosing the euro or some other combination of currencies.


The resulting collapse would bring recession and hyperinflation to a nation where people have no real “wealth,” only overpriced shares of stocks and mutual funds and homes whose equity has been tapped to pay for cars, boats and other depreciable assets.


Only the smart people who buy his book and follow his advice (buy gold, invest in foreign currencies, etc.) will be able to prosper after our economic house of cards has collapsed.
I received this book, by the way, as a Christmas gift from my mother-in-law.


Though I disagree with some of Mr. Schiff’s opinions – namely, that the rest of the world could make do without U.S. consumption (as if the Chinese can buy all the stuff they manufacture) – he does make many valid points.


As individuals, we buy too much and we don’t save enough. As a nation, we have gone from being a creditor to a debtor, and the politicians, Wall Street and (ahem) the media seem to be telling us everything is hunky-dory.


There is definitely a problem here. I just hope it can be fixed before I have to fund my children’s college education with South African Krugerrands.
Merry Christmas!

THEY DRIVE AMONG US: My wife and I took a trip to Paris during the spring of 2001.
In addition to many fond memories of “stuff” (the Eiffel Tower, the Louvre, Notre Dame, etc.), I have two specific recollections:


1) The movie Dude, Where’s My Car?, the Ashton Kutcher comedy, was the pop cultural obsession in France at the time. (Of course, their version was titled Eh Mec, Elle Est Où Ma Caisse?). I saw as many advertisements for that movie in Metro stations as Amelie, a French film that, all things considered, is a better movie.*


2) The Smart Fortwo, the tiniest car I had ever seen, was all over the streets of Paris.
That 70-horsepower beauty will soon be on a street near you. Smarts are going on sale this spring at dozens of dealerships nationwide. Local residents interested in picking one up (which they really could do with help from a couple of linebackers) will have to work through dealerships outside the area, though; the closest ones are in Atlanta and Charleston, S.C.


At 8.8 feet long, the Smart is 4 feet shorter than a Mini Cooper and, at 1,800 pounds, is lighter than a Honda Fit. The base model starts at $11,590.


About 770,000 of these little deuce coupes have been sold worldwide since 1998, but I’m predicting Smarts will not be popular with area residents. There is simply no room on the rear window for more than one NASCAR sticker.


A final word on France: With the exception of one bakery shop clerk, no one there was ever rude to me. The only obnoxious people I saw appeared to be German tourists.

I’M NOT HIM: One foreign country I won’t be traveling to anytime soon is Pakistan. I was recently informed that I bear a fairly close resemblance to Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of slain former prime minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto, who was reportedly assassinated by the same people who brought you 9-11.


The 19-year-old Mr. Zardari has been appointed to replace his mother as head of the Pakistan Peoples Party, which I suppose now means the cross-hairs are on him.

MOVING EARTH: The new Earth Fare store at the Shoppes on Furys Ferry has really helped turn that property around. That’s why I assumed the recent leveling of the hills on the northwest side of the retail strip meant more stores were on the way.
It turns out I was right. Sort of.


The grading of the dirt mounds, which greatly improves the center’s visibility from Furys Ferry and Baston roads, was a condition of Earth Fare’s lease. (I wonder why the previous anchor tenant, Winn-Dixie, never made that request?) The shopping center’s owner worked with Georgia Power to relocate the power lines on the hills so that bulldozing could commence.


Now that the land is flat, the outparcels are being actively marketed to prospective tenants. Based on the traffic Earth Fare is drawing, I wouldn’t expect those parcels to remain empty for long.

LAST GASP: Scott Giboney, at RedWolf, wanted to make sure all the members of the Augusta Advertising Federation dropped off their submissions for the 2007 Addy Awards by Friday. He’s at 1005 Broad St., Suite 301.

* American audiences disagree: Dude, Where’s My Car? had a U.S. box office gross of $46.7 million compared to Amelie’s $33.2 million. Mon Dieu!

Submitted by pschiff on January 06, 2008 - 11:31 PM.
Of course the Chinese can do without our consumption; it’s Americans who can not do without Chinese production. Once the Chinese government allows they yuan to rise and the dollar to collapse, per capita income in china will explode. With their new found purchasing power the Chinese will finally be able to afford to consume their own production. Americans, stuck holding depreciated U.S. dollars, will no longer be able to compete with wealthier Chinese consumers, as a stronger yuan finally allows Chinese consumers to outbid their American counterparts. True purchasing power comes from production and rightfully resides with those dong the producing. However, due to the misguided monetary policies of the Chinese government, the Chinese people have effectively loaned their purchasing power to us. Soon they will reclaim it for themselves, and our days of riding on China’s economic gravy train will come to a screeching halt. You need to re-read my book, as I thought I did a pretty good job of explaining this concept. Anyway, thanks for the plug and my regards to your mother-in-law.

Submitted by stevemarb on January 08, 2008 - 11:09 AM.
It is an interesting concept, however if that happens, then we will shift from a service economy more to a manufacturing economy, as we once were, since our labor will be cheap again. Then our "stuff" will be cheaper than China's "stuff", and the trade deficit will be solved. Don't get me wrong, we would not be as wealthy in the world economy with a weak dollar, but it is somewhat of a self-correcting condition. No doubt, we are headed for harder times with over 9 trillion in debt. The book sounds like an interesting read.

Submitted by rgranfeldt on January 08, 2008 - 7:26 AM.
I was also told by someone at Earth Fare that the dirt removal was a condition of their lease and that Walgreens was to be built there.

Submitted by ManyArrows on January 08, 2008 - 3:53 PM.
Another excellent book is Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis by Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin. Stevemarb is entirely too dismissive of the looming crisis. An economy does not just turn on a dime back into manufacturing as the typical design-to-production cycle is 36 to 60 months. The scenario that Peter Schiff describes means that US labor falls in value to near equilibrium with the Chinese, a very sobering concept indeed. Keynesian economics was OK as long as fairly responsible men controlled the US financial system. Alas, that has no longer been the case since 1998 and the excesses are beyond the capability of the common man to comprehend and perhaps the financiers to remedy.