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Is U.S. headed for an economic disaster?Posted by Damon Cline on January 06, 2008 - 7:33 PM “Right now, the rest of the world owns $3 trillion more of us than we own of them.”
Submitted by pschiff on January 06, 2008 - 11:31 PM.
Of course the Chinese can do without our consumption; it’s Americans who can not do without Chinese production. Once the Chinese government allows they yuan to rise and the dollar to collapse, per capita income in china will explode. With their new found purchasing power the Chinese will finally be able to afford to consume their own production. Americans, stuck holding depreciated U.S. dollars, will no longer be able to compete with wealthier Chinese consumers, as a stronger yuan finally allows Chinese consumers to outbid their American counterparts. True purchasing power comes from production and rightfully resides with those dong the producing. However, due to the misguided monetary policies of the Chinese government, the Chinese people have effectively loaned their purchasing power to us. Soon they will reclaim it for themselves, and our days of riding on China’s economic gravy train will come to a screeching halt. You need to re-read my book, as I thought I did a pretty good job of explaining this concept. Anyway, thanks for the plug and my regards to your mother-in-law.
Submitted by stevemarb on January 08, 2008 - 11:09 AM.
It is an interesting concept, however if that happens, then we will shift from a service economy more to a manufacturing economy, as we once were, since our labor will be cheap again. Then our "stuff" will be cheaper than China's "stuff", and the trade deficit will be solved. Don't get me wrong, we would not be as wealthy in the world economy with a weak dollar, but it is somewhat of a self-correcting condition. No doubt, we are headed for harder times with over 9 trillion in debt. The book sounds like an interesting read.
Submitted by ManyArrows on January 08, 2008 - 3:53 PM.
Another excellent book is Empire of Debt: The Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis by Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin.
Stevemarb is entirely too dismissive of the looming crisis. An economy does not just turn on a dime back into manufacturing as the typical design-to-production cycle is 36 to 60 months.
The scenario that Peter Schiff describes means that US labor falls in value to near equilibrium with the Chinese, a very sobering concept indeed.
Keynesian economics was OK as long as fairly responsible men controlled the US financial system. Alas, that has no longer been the case since 1998 and the excesses are beyond the capability of the common man to comprehend and perhaps the financiers to remedy.
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